De acordo com pesquisa, não haverá segundo turno em Niterói

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Pesquisa do Instituto Gerp, encomendada pela Câmara de Dirigentes Lojistas de Niterói, mostra que não haverá segundo turno na eleição para a escolha do prefeito de Niterói. Rodrigo Neves (PV), candidato à reeleição, subiu nove pontos percentuais e tem agora 39% das intenções de voto, seguido por Felipe Peixoto (PSB), com 21%, Flávio Serafini (Psol), 5%, e Danielle Bornia (PSTU), 5%. Brancos ou nulos somaram 20% e indecisos, 10%.

pesquisa

Clique na imagem e veja detalhes da pesquisa registrada no TRE-RJ

Considerando apenas os votos válidos (excluindo brancos, nulos e indecisos), Rodrigo Neves aparece com 56%, seguido por Felipe Peixoto (PSB), com 30%, Flávio Serafini, com 7%, e Danielle Bornia, com 7%. Como o primeiro colocado tem mais votos que todos os adversários juntos, este resultado indica que, se as eleições fossem hoje, não haveria segundo turno em Niterói.

Na pesquisa anterior, feita entre os dias 13 e 17 de agosto, Rodrigo Neves aparecia com 30% das intenções de voto, seguido por Felipe Peixoto (PSB), com 19%; Flávio Serafini (Psol), com 7%, e Danielle Bornia (PSTU), 2%. Na ocasião, 23% dos entrevistados disseram que não votam em nenhum dos candidatos apresentados e 19% não sabiam ou não responderam.

O presidente do Instituto Gerp, Gabriel Pazos, avalia que Niterói caminha para definir a eleição no primeiro turno. “Rodrigo Neves teve um crescimento significativo. Ele abre uma margem de quase o dobro das intenções de voto do segundo colocado. Pode-se dizer, com segurança que, se nada de muito extraordinário acontecer, Niterói está no rumo de definir a eleição no primeiro turno”, analisou Pazos lembrando que, 56% dos votos válidos garantem a vitória no primeiro turno independente da margem de erro da pesquisa.

Gabriel Pazos também analisou a distribuição das intenções de voto. “Rodrigo Neves teve crescimento na Região Oceânica e no que chamamos de Praias da Baía 2, que inclui bairros como Icaraí, Ingá, Charitas, Jurujuba, Boa Viagem e Gragoatá. Nas demais regiões, ele se manteve. Os adversários apenas oscilaram na margem de erro. Esse indicativo, no início da campanha, pode significar que a intenção de votos em Rodrigo Neves ainda vai crescer”, avalia.

Na simulação de um eventual segundo turno, a pesquisa mostra Rodrigo Neves com 41% das intenções de voto e Felipe Peixoto com 23%. Brancos e nulos somam 24% e indecisos, 12%.

O estudo, encomendado pela Câmara dos Dirigentes Lojistas, ouviu 700 eleitores entre os dias 3 e 6 de setembro de 2016. A margem de erro é de 3,78 pontos percentuais e o nível de confiança é de 95,55%. A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Regional Eleitoral (TRE) sob o protocolo RJ-00774/2016.

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