Perda de R$ 24 bi anuais para educação com PEC 241

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Estudantes tiveram de sentar no chão em uma das escolas em FortalezaSindiute/Divulgação

Estudantes tiveram de sentar no chão em uma das escolas em FortalezaSindiute/Divulgação

Cerca de R$ 24 bilhões poderão deixar de ser investidos por ano em educação, a partir da vigência da Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC) 241/2016, de acordo com a Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira (Conof) da Câmara dos Deputados. A estimativa está em fase final de elaboração na Casa.

O número – R$ 24 bilhões – considera os orçamentos destinados à Manutenção e Desenvolvimento do Ensino (MDE) e ao Ministério da Educação (MEC). Atualmente, a União deve investir pelo menos 18% dos impostos em educação. Com a PEC, essa obrigatoriedade cai e o mínimo que deve ser investido passa a ser, a partir de 2018, o valor do ano anterior corrigido pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA).

Procurado para responder a respeito do tema, o ministro da Educação, Mendonça Filho, diz, por meio de nota, que o estudo da Câmara parte de pressupostos equivocados, porque leva em consideração a manutenção do quadro econômico atual, “que é muito ruim, mas poderá ficar ainda pior se não houver equilíbrio das contas públicas”.

Os R$ 24 bilhões correspondem à diferença do mínimo constitucional para 2017, de 18% dos impostos arrecadados pela União, fixados pelo Projeto de Lei Orçamentária, e as aplicações totais previstas, observadas as regras impostas pela PEC 241/2016. Em 2017, a previsão é que o governo invista além do limite constitucional.

De acordo com os cálculos da consultoria, cerca de R$ 24 bilhões representam o investimento que fica descoberto com as regras da PEC. Esse investimento a mais não é obrigatório para a União e seguirá sendo opcional com a aprovação da PEC, ou seja, pode aplicar nas áreas que desejar.

Com a PEC 241/2016, o investimento total “vai depender de governo a governo, que poderá investir mais do que o mínimo”, explica o consultor Cláudio Riyudi Tanno, responsável pela elaboração de estudo técnico que analisa os impactos do novo regime fiscal constante na PEC nas políticas educacionais.

Embora educação e saúde tenham sido liberadas de um teto específico, há um teto global de gastos do governo e é esse teto que preocupa as entidades do setor. Tanno avalia que esse teto fará com que as despesas obrigatórias acabem tomando grande espaço e, com isso, os novos investimentos fiquem de lado.

“Tem a possibilidade de aumentar [o investimento em educação], mas no cenário de compressão de despesas é difícil imaginar o crescimento em educação, que terá que ser em detrimento de outras áreas”, afirmou.

Segundo Tanno, os R$ 24 bilhões descobertos calculados a partir do Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual são uma referência para os próximos 20 anos porque 2017 é a base para a correção das despesas em educação.

Equilíbrio fiscal

Principal estratégia do governo de Michel Temer para segurar o avanço da crise econômica no Brasil, a PEC 241/2016 fixa um teto para as despesas primárias do governo para os próximos 20 anos.

A proposta limita os gastos de todos os Poderes ao Orçamento do ano anterior, corrigidos pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) pelo período de 20 anos, podendo ser alterado no 10º ano de vigência da regra. Apenas no primeiro ano (2017) desse ajuste, o limite será corrigido por 7,2%. Se órgãos e poderes não cumprirem a regra ficarão proibidos de conceder aumentos salariais, reajuste de benefícios e de realizarem concurso.

O diretor da Consultoria de Orçamento e Fiscalização Financeira da Câmara, Ricardo Volpe, que ajudou a elaborar a proposta, assegura que o ajuste fiscal é inevitável. “A gente criou a ilusão, pós-Constituição de 1988, que o Estado tem condições de dar tudo para a sociedade. Agora, a gente vai ter que priorizar. Se educação e saúde são prioridades, vamos tirar de outro lugar. Todas as áreas têm um teto e saúde e educação têm um piso, um mínimo. Quer gastar mais com isto? Basta gastar menos em outros”, disse.

Para áreas prioritárias, as regras são diferentes e valem como piso, mínimo de gastos. No caso da saúde, o mínimo a ser gasto em 2017 será equivalente a 15% da receita corrente líquida do exercício corrente e, na educação, 18% dos impostos. A partir de 2018 esses pisos serão calculados com base também no IPCA.

Segundo Volpe, mantida a atual trajetória, o país chegará ao ponto de desconfiança do ponto de vista do mercado, que pode deixar de comprar títulos públicos, usado para rolagem da dívida, ou vai querer comprar com valor muito baixo. “O que significa que terá de aumentar a taxa de juros. Não conseguindo financiar suas despesas, a União deixará de pagar mesmo e terá de emitir moedas para pagar seus compromissos, a inflação vai subir e os salários serão congelados”, projetou.

A saída, de acordo com o técnico legislativo, será a busca por maior eficiência dos gastos. “O Estado brasileiro gasta muito e gasta mal. O Estado terá de buscar eficiência”. Especificamente sobre os gastos em educação, o técnico legislativo diz que o Estado gastou “uma montanha de dinheiro a mais. Gastou 4% a mais que o PIB [Produto Interno Bruto] nos últimos anos e o Ideb [Índice de Desenvolvimento da Educação Básica] não sai do lugar. Nem sempre dar dinheiro a mais resolve o problema. Você tem de buscar qualidade, profissionalismo”.

Segundo o ministro Mendonça  Filho, o teto proposto pela PEC 241 é global e reforça o compromisso do governo com o equilíbrio das contas públicas, além de garantir a governabilidade econômica. “O que retira dinheiro da educação é o Brasil em recessão, quebrado, sem espaço para crescimento e aumento de receita”. A nota acrescenta que o equilíbrio fiscal possibilita a retomada do crescimento, a geração de empregos e aumenta a arrecadação, inclusive o investimento em educação.

O ministro defende que, sem a PEC, “o governo quebra e inviabiliza todas as áreas, inclusive a educação”. De acordo com o Ministério da Educação, em 2016, a pasta conta com R$ 129,96 bilhões previstos para custear despesas e programas. No PLOA 2017, esse valor chega a R$ 138,97 bilhões, um crescimento de 7%, “o que mostra a prioridade com a área”.

Com informações da Agência Brasil

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